Aaron
  Boone's
  Homepage

  Home
  The Liberation of
  Chateau Gontier
  Work
  Address Book
  Sports
  Wildlife Forays
  Road Trips
  Weather
  Weather: LAM fcst
  Weather: Global fcst

ASP: Atmosphere-Surface Prediction system


Limited Area Model Domains


Page Menu


Real Time Forecast Plots

GFS-ASP Comparison Forecast Plots

Comparison plots (500 mb Height and Surface Pressure) which show the forecasts for both ASP and the GFS model are plotted for the

North American Domain

and the

European Domain

for the same forecast increments (and both starting at the same time using the same GFS analysis fields for initialization). Note that the plotted GFS fields are those interpolated from the original GFS global fields, so some very small differences between these fields and those presented, for example, on the NCEP-GFS site are posible. Finally, note that these are not validation plots, as the GFS data plotted are forecast data: differences don't necessarily imply a *better* GFS forecast!

Real Time Standard Forecast Plots

Plots can be seen here for 2 domains (North America, and Europe). Plots of the entire model domains with map factor contours can be seen here. The initial fields and 3.5 day forecasts (0 to 84 hour forcasts, every 12 hours) can be seen below by clicking on the appropriate links (below). For now, the plots will generally be updated daily. For interesting weather situations, they'll be updated 2x per day.

Feel free to send any comments (aaron.a.boone@gmail.com).

FieldNorth AmericaNorth America EuropeEurope
100 Hgt, WindV, WindS 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
200 Hgt, WindV, WindS 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
300 Hgt, WindV, WindS 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
500 Hgt, WindV, AbsVort 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
700 Hgt, WindV, VVel 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
700 Hgt, 850-500 mb RHavg 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
925 Hgt, surf-850 mb RHavg 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
850 Hgt, WindV, Tair 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
925 Hgt, WindV, Tair 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
1000 Hgt, WindV, Tair 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
PSurf, Total Precip, 500-1000 Thck 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
PSurf, Convct Precip 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
PSurf, Convect Precip Frac 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Precipitable Water 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Cloud Water 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
High level Clouds (fraction) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Medium level Clouds (fraction) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Low level Clouds (fraction) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
PSurf, Froz Precip, 5400m Thck, 850mb-0deg 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
PBLz 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
CAPE 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
LIFTed Index 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
CIN 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
CMassFlx 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Near surface (screen level) Tair (2 m) and WindV (10 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Lowest model level Tair, and Wind and RH 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Lowest model level Wind Speed 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Lowest model level convergence 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h

Surface Variables:

TSurf 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Evapc (cummulative evaporation) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Qh (surface senbile heat flux) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Ql (surface latent heat flux) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
SWdown 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
LWdown 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
SnowF 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
SnowDepth 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Surface Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Bulk Snow Temperature (on ground) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Bulk Snow Density (on ground) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Snow Saturation (on ground) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Total Runoff 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Moisture: layer 1 (0.00 to 0.03 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Moisture: layer 2 (0.03 to 0.10 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Moisture: layer 3 (0.10 to 0.40 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Moisture: layer 4 (0.40 to 1.00 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Moisture: layer 5 (1.00 to 2.00 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Temperature: layer 1 (0.00 to 0.03 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Temperature: layer 2 (0.03 to 0.10 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Temperature: layer 3 (0.10 to 0.40 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Temperature: layer 4 (0.40 to 1.00 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Soil Temperature: layer 5 (1.00 to 2.00 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Frozen Soil: layer 1 (0.00 to 0.03 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Frozen Soil: layer 2 (0.03 to 0.10 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Frozen Soil: layer 3 (0.10 to 0.40 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Frozen Soil: layer 4 (0.40 to 1.00 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h
Frozen Soil: layer 5 (1.00 to 2.00 m) 0-36h 48-84h 0-36h 48-84h

    Key:
  • Hgt = Geopotential Height (m)
  • WindS = Wind speed
  • WindV = Wind vectors
  • Tair = Air Temperture
  • AbsVort = Absolute Vorticity
  • VVel = Vertical velocity defined as -omega (+ for upward motion)
  • Qair = Specific Humidity
  • Precip = Cummulative total (convective and stratiform) Precipitation for each forecast interval
  • Convct Precip = Cummulative convective Precipitation for each forecast interval
  • Convct Precip Frac = Ratio of Cummulative convective to total precipitation for each forecast interval
  • Froz Precip = Cummulative Frozen total Precipitation (liquid water equivalent)
  • Precipitable Water = Total vertically integrated water vapor (inches)
  • Thck = Pressure thickness
  • High level Clouds = Clouds above approximately 400 mb (standard atmosphere)
  • Medium level Clouds = Clouds between approximately 800 and 400 mb (standard atmosphere)
  • Low level Clouds = Clouds below approximately 800 mb (standard atmosphere)
  • 850mb-0deg = 850mb 0 degree C isotherm
  • Lowest Model Level = Currently corresponds to eta=0.997 or about 30 m above the ground (less in high altitude zones)
  • Near-Surf = 2m Tair and 10m Wind speed (i.e. at the level of standard measurements)
  • Evapc = Cummulative Surface evaporation (mm day-1 over forecast interval)
  • TSurf = Surface temperature: combined surface vegetation and upper thin soil layer or SST (Sea Surface Temp.)
  • SWdown = downwelling shortwave radiation flux at the surface (W m2)
  • LWdown = downwelling longwave radiation flux at the surface (W m2)
  • PBLz = Planetary Boundary Layer Depth (thickness: distance from top of PBL to surface) (m)
  • CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy (J kg-1)
  • CIN = Convective Inhibition (J kg-1)
  • CMassFlx = Convective mass flux (+up): mass flux at cloud base
  • SnowF = Cummulative snowfall depth (inches) for each forecast interval
  • SnowDepth = Snow depth (inches) on the ground
  • SWE = Snow Water Equivalent depth (mm) on the ground
  • Snow Density = Bulk Snow density (kg m-3) on the ground
  • Snow Saturation = snow liquid water saturation (on the ground)
  • Snow Temperature = Bulk Snow Temperature (K) on the ground
  • Runoff = Cummulative Total runoff (and drainage) for each forecast interval
  • Soil Moisture = layer average volumetric water content (m3/m3)
  • Soil Temperature = layer average soil temperature (C)
  • Frozen Soil = layer average Fraction of total water content which is ice (-), ranges from 0 to 1 (totally frozen)

* NOTE on the 850 mb 0-C Isotherm - the 850 mb air temperature is replaced by the lowest level atmospheric temperature if the corresponding pressure is below 850 mb. This is more relevant in mountainous terrain.

** NOTE on the snow plots: this plot is made simply by assuming a 12-1 ratio between snow fall depth (Snowf) and the liquid water equivalent snowfall depth. It simply represents the potential depth of snowfall (precipitation thickness), and does not consider snowpack processes such as compaction or melting of snowpack (snowpack physics), nor a variable snowfall density. SnowDepth corresponds to the actual depth of the snowpack on the surface, and it changes in time owing to compaction, settling, sublimation, melting, and accumulation.

*** NOTE on the Runoff plot: it is the sum of all water leaving the soil column, and consists in sub-grid surface (fast response) Dunne runoff, deep-soil drainage, and any excess saturation. In this simple representation, it is assumed to either flow laterally to nearest river, or to flow to deeper soil reservoirs/aquifers.



Standard Atmosphere: Pressure-Height correspondence

As a reference, the pressure levels above correspond to the approximate heights below in meters (and feet) for a standard atmosphere. Note that actual heights can vary considerably as a function of season, location etc.

Pressure (HPa or mb) height (meters)height (feet)
100 16170 53051
200 11770 38616
300 9160 30053
500 5570 18274
700 3000 9843
850 1460 4790
925 760 2493
1013.25 0 0


Physiographic Input Plots

Plots can be seen here for 2 domains (North America, and Europe). Selected input fields consisting in soil, vegetation and topography data are shown here. Vegetation fields vary as a function of month currently, all other fields are fixed in time.

FieldNorth AmericaEurope
Elevation (m) X X
Standard deviation of orography X X
Sand fraction X X
Clay fraction X X
Leaf Area Index (LAI) X X
Vegetation cover fraction X X
Snow-free land surface albedo X X
Snow-free soil-vegetation surface roughness X X

* NOTE on Snow-free soil-vegetation roughness: this does not include additional increases in roughness owing to sub-grid orography effects (in the model, the total roughness, including orography and snow, is used to compute the drag coefficients).


Disclaimer

Please note that this page has nothing to do with my employer, CNRS, or where I am employed, at the National Center for Meteorological Research (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques: CNRM) at Meteo-France. The opinions expressed herein are my own, and are not a reflection of those where I work or of my employer.

Acknowledgement

Finally, a special thanks is extended to the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for making GFS analysis and forecast data freely available in near real time, which makes applications and research such as this possible.